12.13.2004 23:23

Knoxville Slugger


Much of what's been in the news lately just doesn't interest me: the Peterson case, who's in and who's out in Bush's cabinet, the Palestinian elections. There are probably others, but those are the ones which come to mind.

What Bush does with Social Security and with Federal involvement in education are two domestic issues which do interest me.

But, the past few days I've been thinking about the guys running for chairman of the Democrat National Committee (no gals in the race, hmm). It seems as if the leftist and liberal blogs I read are pushing Howard Dean (he of the Conversion on the Lake Champlain Bike Path [irrelevant parenthesis: a relative of mine was a 'Champ Marine' in the Korean War]).

Ignore the four-year long opportunity this hands Karl Rove to parody the Democrats ('I have a scream', 'God, guns and gays'). Dean as DNC chairman would lock the party into the camp with the least credibility on defense and security. With security, not 'values', being the most important factor in voters choosing between Bush and Kerry, do the Democrats really want to spend the next four years with Dean as their public face?

Not only would Dean be the Democrat Party for four years, filling that spot would make it more difficult for a pro-War on Terror candidate to emerge: folks inclined to a strong prosecution of the WOT would shun the party.

Democrats didn't have an organization deficit in 2004: Kerry's 59 million votes were the Al Gore voters (51 million in 2000) and 2.5 million Ralph Nader got in 2000, plus another 5.5 million, better than a 10% increase. Bush's organization did a lot better than Kerry's. Bush's votes went from 50.5 million to 62 million, more than 20%. No one knows whether there will be as large a turnout in 2008 as this year, but Democrats (and Republicans) better not count on it.

The Democrats in Washington have the same defects: they don't appeal to security voters or to values voters. Neither Senators nor Congressmen nor insiders such as Ickes are trusted to successfully prosecute a war because they haven't since Korea. I'd also add that the Washington Democrats don't have any budget-cutting credibilty either, so they're hypocritical about Bush's deficits. So, no to Howard Dean and no to Washington candidates.

That pretty much limits the field to people from the States with organizational ability, and that means Governors or a Mayor. From 22 Governors, you'd have to eliminate Warner of Virginia, since he's rumored to have his eye on the 2008 nomination. A strategy of expanding the 2008 Democrat vote outside 2004's, and overcoming the association with the Northeast and Upper Midwest, rules out Rendell of Pennsylvania, Granholm of Michigan, Blagojevich of Illinois, Doyle of Wisconsin, Vilsack of Iowa, and Locke of Washington. Maybe if Phil Bredesen of Tennessee can get the state constitution amended to ban an income tax and the TennCare mess cleaned up (he's actually pulling the plug on the program), he'd be the face of low-cost, low-tax Democrat government.

If he won't fill the chairman's spot, could he be the nominee?